Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD flat lines above $2,650 ahead of US PMI release
- Gold price trades flat around $2,660 in Friday’s early Asian session.
- Safe-haven demand and buying by global central banks lift the Gold price.
- The expectation of a slower pace of the US interest rate reduction might cap the upside for the yellow metal.
The Gold price (XAU/USD) consolidates its gains near $2,660 after reaching a two-week high during the early Asian session on Friday. The safe-haven flows amid the geopolitical tensions provide some support to the precious metal. The US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for December will take center stage later on Friday. Also, the Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin is scheduled to speak.
Russia carried out a drone attack on Kyiv early Wednesday, causing damage in two districts, while Israel targeted a Gaza City neighbourhood, per Reuters. Investors will closely monitor the development surrounding geopolitical risks. Any signs of escalating tensions in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine could boost the Gold price, a traditional safe-haven asset.
Central bank purchasing activities could contribute to the yellow metal’s upside. Global central banks bought 694 tonnes of gold during the first nine months of 2024. “We think central bank interest will be a strong base for the buying next year,” noted Henrik Marx, global head of trading at Heraeus Precious Metals, which expected that gold could reach highs of $2,950 per troy ounce in 2025.
On the other hand, the slower pace of further rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might weigh on the non-yielding asset. The US central bank decided to lower the interest rates in December but signalled that borrowing costs will fall more slowly than previously expected this year.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.